Red State

This cause - "No Pardon or Clemency for George Ryan" - was passed along to me in light of my article yesterday, and now I'm passing it along to you. It can be donated to: all donations go to the Better Government Association. The creator of it is himself a RedState reader and occasional diarist, so check it out.

If you're wondering why I'm linking to a cause found on a social networking site that you don't yourself use, you're wondering about the wrong thing. What you should be wondering is why you're not on that and other social networking sites yourself, particularly if you're eager to go full-metal grassroots activist for 2010 and beyond. These places are not substitutes for working in your state and local GOP offices... but they're darn good supplements, and if your goal is increased communication you need to start thinking like a communicator.

So go to it, then.

Moe Lane

PS: Don't go too far with it, of course. Your state and local GOP offices do need your help.

As most of you know, I, several of us here for that matter, am a signer of Rebuild the Party. I have not written much about it here because too many people initially attributed it to me, but it is very much Patrick Ruffini’s idea. I did not want to start blogging about it and bolster an unfounded claim to it.

Now that some time has passed, let me share my thoughts indirectly on rebuilding. I’m dealing with the party indirectly in this post and will deal with it more directly later. I agree with Patrick’s ideas and gladly gave input to the document. But I think there is more to it and I want to be candid, frank, and honest with you all. In short, while we are rebuilding the party, let us not forget to rebuild the conservative movement.

One of the greatest failures of the conservative movement in the past decade was to join itself to the Republican hip. By necessity, conservatives and Republicans are linked, but they are not nor must they be the same thing.

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It's time to watch some educational TV. And it's always worth tuning in with Dan Mitchell:

The Arena asked us contributors to . . . well . . . contribute. As I write here, I find it interesting that the President-elect appears to be backing away from his commitment to remove troops from Iraq in 16 months and his approach on decision-making seems to be lifted straight from the playbooks of George W. Bush and John McCain. This probably won't get the President-elect the same level of opprobrium, of course; the President-elect's current rapturous honeymoon precludes this sort of thing. But someone ought to point out the irony. We were asked to consider whether Bill Clinton would come along as an asset or a liability given the appointment of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State. In the business, this is what is called a "gimme."

Considering the general issue further, I wanted to weigh in as well on Hillary Clinton's executive experience and what it bodes for her leadership at Foggy Bottom, as well as how the reappointment of Robert Gates as Defense Secretary--a reappointment I look upon with great favor--could be botched. I do so in a follow-up here.

Since the recount in Minnesota is going badly for Al Franken, he is contemplating asking the Senate to intervene. To be sure, the Senate has the Constitutional authority to do so but few things could de-legitimize Franken more than having a Democrat-controlled Senate state that he is the winner when the election officials in the state of Minnesota--no red state, that--seem to think differently. Indeed, who doesn't think that the Senate would decide the election purely on partisan grounds--especially with Harry Reid at the helm.

We have, of course, seen this kind of controversy before. The seating of Frank McCloskey enraged and embittered House Republicans and was remembered when the GOP swept to power in the aftermath of the 1994 midterms. I suppose that it would be fairly easy for Republicans to be cynical and make hay amongst the base if Al Franken is seated by Harry Reid & Company. But as the state of Minnesota seems to be handling this issue just fine so far and as there are no federal issues at stake, it seems to me that it would be good policy if branches of the federal government stayed out of the matter. And wouldn't it be nice if good policy triumphed from time to time?

When people on the left start favorably linking to this Wall Street Journal article, you know the bailout has problems.

[I]n the other American auto industry you rarely read about, car makers are gaining market share and adjusting amid the sales slump, without seeking a cent from the government.

These are the 12 "foreign," or so-called transplant, producers making cars across America's South and Midwest. Toyota, BMW, Kia and others now make 54% of the cars Americans buy. The internationals also employ some 113,000 Americans, compared with 239,000 at U.S.-owned carmakers, and several times that number indirectly.

The root of this other industry's success is no secret. In fact, Detroit has already adopted some of its efficiency and employment strategies, though not yet enough. To put it concisely, the transplants operate under conditions imposed by the free market. Detroit lives on Fantasy Island.

And therein lies the problem. The Democrats have set up a false dichotomy -- helping American automakers and not foreign automakers.

Funny, in Democrats' minds massive immigration of people is a good think. Hell, they'll even embrace you if you're illegal. But no foreigners allowed, even highly productive ones, when the foreigners are companies employing American workers.

The world has advanced too far for Democrat protectionist policies of command and control.

Yes, that Peter Funt, and he's starting to wonder when it ends:

This is not easy to write, because I consider the election of Barack Obama to be one of the most inspiring political and social developments of my lifetime. I truly mean no disrespect when I say: Stop asking for money.

The answer is, of course, that it won't. Ever.

This is the race that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friends
Some people started running it, not knowing what it was
And they'll continue running it forever just because...

Moe Lane

PS: "Mean no disrespect?" The guy's going to be President, not King; and he's the one with a hand out, asking for a bailout for the DNC. Show some backbone, man.

Promoted from the diaries by Erick

I went to the rally the vote event for Saxby Chambliss this afternoon. And, again Sarah Palin showed, as she has in every venue before this one, what charisma and star power are. It may have not been a record but the thousands of people - young women, at least 3 or 4 beauty queens with their tiaras and sashes, little kids, young couples with babaies, and the staple of the GA RNC, old people - came out to see her and her only.

At an event to re-elect (in a runoff) Senator Chambliss, it was billed as "Chambliss - Palin" on the signage leading to the Gwinnett Civic Center. The candidate INTRODUCED the the Alaska Governor who spoke for the majority of the event. After a very good speech, her fourth of the day, Senator Chambliss and Governor Palin made their way through the rope line. It was easy to spot Saxby making his quickly through his supporters. To see Sarah you followed the photo flashes,the pointing of hundreds of cameras and video, the kids being passed up, and crush of most of the crowd around her. It was easier to see her from 10 aisles up than 10 feet away.

Considering my choices, I took the easier of two possibilities. I shook hands with Senator Chambliss' and made my way to the door. Sarah Palin's appearance may not have any appreciable affect on turnout. I do not think it will, but I have already voted for the Senator. I would believe that Senator Chambliss would rather be the foil for peaple hoping to see the next POTUS at the beginning of her ascent than being the headliner for Congressman John L. Lewis and Ludacris - ala Jim Martin - the night before his re-election.

Anyway, another inspiring Palin sighting means more hysteria from the Looney Left and Democrats who still have memories of another "amiable dunce" and more MIS-anlysis from the drive-bys and DC-Philly-NYC Milk Toast Conservatives. Enjoy.

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I think we're all getting a quite vivid sense that President-elect Obama's way of handling tough situations is to set his jaw, furrow his brow, stare purposefully forward, say reassuring things, but on no account to make any clear statements of intent, or to actually do anything.

At least one of the consequences of this extremely risk-averse approach to leadership, is that financial markets are completely in the dark about what they can expect from the new government.

And when financial markets don't know what to expect, they always err on the side of excessive caution. Hence the great difficulty they've been having in finding a bottom to bounce off from.

The stock and bond markets appear to be discounting an economic future that is little short of catastrophic. Since total catastrophe is one of the least likely outcomes, it stands to reason that markets are currently underpriced.

But that's not to say they can't very easily become a lot more underpriced!

Obama could sweep away a lot of this uncertainty and unreasoning fear with no more than a ten-minute news conference.

He could stand up, with the towering Paul Volcker, the sour-pussed Larry Summers and the sardonic-looking Tim Geithner standing behind him, and say the following:

"Ladies and gentlemen, I've consulted at length with my economic team. We're acutely aware that our economy is facing great uncertainty. We understand that our system is a capitalistic one. We intend to do whatever it takes to get business and capital working again, for the sake of every consumer and working person in America.

We also recognize our critical responsibility to the rest of the world. As the pre-eminent economic power, it's up to us to lead global markets back to health and prosperity.

I'm announcing the following key decisions, which we will stand by until our markets are back to normal, employment is growing, and our economy is healthy again:

All tax increases on capital, dividends, and business income are OFF THE TABLE.

All protectionist legislation, including increased tariffs and import duties, are OFF THE TABLE.

All new regulations, mandated costs and taxes on businesses, including export businesses, are OFF THE TABLE.

That is all. Thank you."

If Obama were to give this speech, you'd see explosive market rallies, and everyone would heave a big sigh of relief.

So how about it, Mr. President-elect?

-Francis Cianfrocca

John Goodman, head of the National Center for Policy Analysis, breaks down Obama HHS Secretary Tom Daschle's philosophy on health care reform, as expressed in his book Critical: What We Can Do About the Health Care Crisis, thusly:

The main ideas: Medicaid expansion, Federal Employee Health Benefits Program (FEHBP) for everyone who wants to enroll, Medicare for the nonelderly as a FEHBP option, a play-or-pay mandate for individuals, income-based, refundable tax credit subsidies (both at work and away from work), a play-or-pay mandate for employers, electronic medical records, a national health board ("to establish a single standard of care for every other provider and payer"…covering every disease from cancer to diabetes and even depression), preventive care, dental health, mental health, long-term care, home care, community health centers and combating obesity.

Not on the list: Health Savings Accounts, although Daschle was once an advocate, and even cosponsored HSA legislation.

Not on the list: Single-payer health insurance, but only because it is not politically practical.

Not on the list: Any way to pay for any of this. (The issue is not, can we afford reform? The issue is, can we afford not to?) I'm not kidding.

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The first are bone-crushingly naive, of course: but the second have had a really rotten return on their investment, these last few years.

But let's check in with the New York Post, first:

High-ranking members of Congress were flown to a lush Caribbean resort this month for a three-day conference planned and paid for by several of the country's most powerful corporations - a violation of federal ethics rules, critics say.

Six members of the Congressional Black Caucus attended the 13th annual Caribbean Multi-National Business Conference in sun-drenched St. Maarten, including embattled Harlem Rep. Charles Rangel and New Jersey Rep. Donald Payne.

(Via A Blog For All, via Instapundit.)

Let's give you the list, shall we?

Charles Rangel (D, NY-15) Donald Payne (D, NJ-10) Sheila Jackson-Lee (D, TX-18) Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D, MI-13) Bennie Thompson (D, MS-2) Donna Christensen (D, VI) (nonvoting member)

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Congratulations to RedState friend Kevin McCarthy, a Republican Congressman from California. Eric Cantor has just named him the Chief Deputy Whip for the House Republicans.

It is a fine choice.

Sarah Palin is on a barnstorming tour of the state of Georgia today, campaigning for fellow Republican Saxby Chambliss. The incumbant senator faces a runoff election tomorrow against challenger Jim Martin, a Democrat. With votes still being recounted in the Minnesota senate contest between Al Franken and Norm Coleman, the outcome of Tuesday's Georgia runoff could determine the size of the Democrats' majority in the senate.

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Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX), a member of the Republican Study Committee, has had enough of Congressional bailouts.

Right now there is $350 billion left of he $700 billion Congressional bailout funds. He has an alternative to more bailouts: a two month tax holiday.

Gohmert’s tax holiday plan is elegant in its simplicity: every American taxpayer would pay no federal income or FICA taxes for the first two months of 2009. For the typical American family -- earning about $50,000 a year -- that would mean they would keep about $2000 that would otherwise be paid to the government.

Gohmert’s plan doesn’t pay for Wall Street bonuses or let banks use bailout money to buy other banks or pay dividends. It doesn’t rely on bureaucrats to pay money out to the right people at the right time or try to stimulate the economy with token payments to people who don’t pay taxes.

Gohmert would like to hold the holiday in January or February of next year. It would cost approximately $332 billion, still cheaper than using the rest of the bailout money for a bailout.

Freeing individuals from two months of federal taxation would be a substantial benefit to families and the economy. “Those who can’t catch up on their mortgage get one-third of their money back each month and then they’ll be able to catch up on their mortgages. They’ll be able to refinance their mortgages, they’ll be able to buy stock that they can’t currently buy,” Gohmert said.

He added, “Somebody earning $72,000 would get a couple of thousand dollars back a month if we allow them to get back both income tax and FICA.”

You can sign our petition to support Congressman Gohmert. As events unfold and the legislation is drafted, we will email petition signers with the names and phone numbers of Congressmen to call to support the Gohmert plan.

You can post this petition too by embedding this code in your site:

<script src="https://widgets.kimbia.com/widgets/form.js?channel=redstate.kimbia.com/taxholiday"> </script>

The direct link to the petition is here.

The 30-year T bond is priced to yield 3.34% this morning. The 10-year note is at 2.83%. These are extraordinary numbers, and they're still falling fast. Three-and-six month bills are already at or near zero. This is powerful and continuing evidence that markets are uncertain and fleeing from risk.

The midcurve and long-end are multi-trillion dollar asset classes that have increased in value by something like a third, in just the last few weeks. If you thought supertankers couldn’t turn on a dime, you haven’t been watching the bond market.

One is also tempted to say this is evidence that markets are expecting extreme economic weakness ahead.

But there are so many dislocations in the bond market and trading is so illiquid, that it would be a stretch to say this is signaling anything but total uncertainty. By “dislocation,” I mean that there is an abundance of relationships among assets that make no economic sense. (The continuing negative 30-year swap spread is just one example.)

A textbook world would arbitrage the dislocations away almost immediately. Yet they persist and in some cases are growing.

But what is the real price of money in a time of deflation? A zero-yield six-month Treasury bill, combined with October’s 1% decline in CPI, implies a real interest rate of something like 5 or 6%: that's exceptionally high, and a very good reason not to engage in economic activity.

Then there is the pricing of TIPS. These are Treasury securities that adjust their principal amount every year according to the Consumer Price Index. So in theory, they represent the real cost of risk-free money at any given point on the yield curve. And the difference between TIPS yields and Treasury yields predicts future inflation.

As far as I can tell, the current TIPS spread appears to be predicting that we’ll have deflation of more than one percent each year for at least the next five years. Make of that what you will.

As I said, extreme uncertainty. And uncertainty breeds risk-aversion, which breeds economic weakness.

Update: At 10am ET, the 30-year bond is up almost two and 26/32, to yield 3.30%. The 10-year note is yielding 2.81%. As I said, extraordinary.

-Francis Cianfrocca